Cozumel is missing tourists and tourists are missing Cozumel. How much longer until they can be reunited? We take a look in our crystal ball and try to make an educated guess...
The short answer: we think if everything goes well, the island could be receiving Mexican tourists from mid-June and international tourists from mid-July.
UPDATE June 8, 2020: We've been receiving quite a few inquiries from people who are booked and planning to visit towards the end of June or beginning of July. In Cozumel we plan to be ready to welcome them by then, so we're now optimistic that international tourism could return earlier than we expected. Watch this space.
And here's the long answer:
Cozumel and the rest of the Mexican Caribbean know that safety for tourists is a top priority and an essential prerequisite for visitors to return with confidence. Authorities and businesses have been working hard to prepare and implement new safety standards for tourists and the World Travel and Tourism Council said, yesterday, the region will be one of the first destinations in the world to meet their new international "Safe Travels" standard. So important groundwork has already been laid.
The Mexican federal government says the curve of COVID-19 cases has been flattened and hopes the peak for the country has been passed, although this is still not certain. The Mexican equivalent to "lockdown", known as the Jornada de Sana Distancia, has prevented all but essential activities and asked people to stay indoors as much as possible. It started on March 23, 2020 but is due to end on May 30, 2020 - this Saturday. The government says Mexico will then enter a new phase and restrictions will be lifted cautiously, municipality by municipality, depending on local conditions.
The lifting of restrictions will follow a color-coded traffic signal system: red; orange; yellow; and green, depending on hospital capacities and the increase or decrease in cases in the area. Cozumel has had a relatively low number of confirmed cases (41 in total as of yesterday) and they appear to be steady or even slowing a little now. The island hospital has also expanded its capacity. These two facts will give locals hope that the island can advance through the traffic signal system as quickly as possible.
Once in the orange phase, which we think could be as early as mid-June, hotels should be able to re-open with limited capacity and other "non-essential" businesses can resume activity too. (The state government and local tourism industry representatives say hotels will be able to open by June 8. It's not yet clear how this would fit with the federal government's plan but we expect things to become clearer in the next 24-48 hours.)
Assuming some tourist travel is possible within Mexico, by road or air, then it's quite possible Mexican tourists will be able to visit in June. Anecdotally, hotels on the island have even reported good levels of reservations already. This is why we think the island could be receiving national tourists again from mid-June.
However, we think it's very unlikely any international tourists will be arriving to the island that soon. Delta airlines has announced it will start flying more frequently to Cancun in June and American Airlines are expected to resume more frequent direct flights to Cozumel in June as well, but the number of tourists who can fly in will also depend on the health crises in the US, Canada and Europe, and governments there lifting international travel bans. Given this, we think mid-July is more likely to be the earliest international tourists can return in earnest.
UPDATE June 8, 2020: We've been receiving quite a few inquiries from people who are booked and planning to visit towards the end of June or beginning of July. In Cozumel we plan to be ready to welcome them by then, so we're now optimistic that international tourism could return earlier than we expected. Watch this space.
Of course, we haven't mentioned cruise ships yet. Could they return sooner? Unfortunately not. Major cruise lines, including Carnival, Royal Caribbean and Norwegian, have suspended all their cruises internationally until the end of July, so the island can't expect to see any ships dock until at least August.
In the meantime, islanders are gritting their teeth and tightening their belts some more to get through the dire economic crisis they are experiencing. The worse off really are struggling and food parcels have become essential, so please support and share our Food Aid Cozumel campaign to help the families most in need.
You can rest assured the island will be more beautiful than ever after its break though. And islanders' smiles will be even bigger too, when they welcome you back. We hope to see you soon!
